Recap on the past 3 days in Lebanon

The Arab Ministerial Committee's mission was a success. Their mission last wednesday was to calm things down, open the airport again, bring opposition and government closer, adopt the fact that the government retracted the May 5 decisions, and went on with the next step which is dialog.

This time, dialog is going to take place in Doha, Qatar.

No more signs of weapons on the streets, no more clashes, several airplanes landed in Beirut's airport yesterday, and several left our airport today.

In the past 3 to 4 days, some of the government's officials and pro-government political party leaders, such as Saad Hariri, Fouad Siniora, Samir Geagea, etc... have toughed up their tones, while many thought that it only meant things were not going to get better even with the Arab Ministerial Committee's upcoming efforts.

But in my opinion, it was only a theatrical broadway show, orchestrated to make those pro-government people appear as they are pissed, because if they do show that they backed down so smoothly, the pro-government followers, and the big players who support this government were going to be extremely pissed.

In my opinion, the government did not lose per se, however it compromised for the sake of this country.

Awaiting.... what?

Sunday 11th of May, 2008, the 5th day of the bloody demonstration gone wrong, of the strike gone war, of the genuine demands gone terrorizing.

The airport road, the port road and the Masnaa road (bordering with Syria) is still closed, and many other roads in Beirut are still closed. Lebanese army is widely spread in all Beirut, and there are no sign of armed men on the streets, even the Sukleen cleaners are on the roads cleaning. However the civil disobedience asked for by the Opposition leaders is still present until all their demands are met.

North Lebanon is calmer now, some sort of agreement on calming things down have been set.

Many foreigners are leaving Lebanon, and some have been advices by their own embassies to leave Lebanon.



The arab ministers will be in session soon, in order to discuss the current crisis in Lebanon. Should we expect much from them? I believe not, until now, they never really helped this much. Refraining from offending anyone, but we all know who the big regional players are, and at this point, all negotiations are done silently and discretly away from the crowds.

The death toll has risen to more than 40, I don't have the exact number, but yesterday alone had 20 casualties. In particular, the victim during the Tarik Jadidah's funeral.

Siniora is not budging, the army is trying to compromise, the opposition is still firm, less firm than the beginning, nonetheless, it appears for the situation to get better, it needs a minimum of another 2, 3 days of tension.

Lebanese Army`s statement to the rescue

The Lebanese Army declared the following statement (not word by word):
- It has been decided to keep Chief Wafik Shoukeir in his position in the airport
- Demanded for all armed forces to be withdrawn from the streets, and to open all the streets

I believe that this statement, is not only the road for things to get better, but it is even better than we have asked for.

With the leadership of the army deciding to keep the Chief Shoukeir in his position in the airport, the first point of Nasrallah's demand is being met, and the first point of the government's demand is also applied.

By this, Hezbollah is bound to accept the 2nd point of the government which is electing General Michel Sleiman as president, as courtesy to his wise decisions in the past few days and especially in the Shoukeir one.

Moreover, this can lead everyone to the dialog again.

Prediction not for the near future, but for the slightly far one, there will be new elections soon.

Peace in Lebanon, or Hell on Earth

"Peace cannot be kept by force. It can only be achieved by understanding." Albert Einstein (1979-1955)

This is actually the proverb that I have had as "Quote of the week" for the past year I think, and everytime I decide to put a new proverb, I just can't find anything that describes our needs in Lebanon better.

As simple and straight to the point this quote is, as perfect as it describes what's happening now.

While listening to Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, the general secretary of Hezbollah political party, and military leader of the Lebanese Islamic resistence against any foreign insurgence, i.e. ISRAEL, I can't help but think how much this person is logical and convincing, nevertheless, this man's press conference had some flaws in it.

He did say, that anyone who tries to put his hands on Hezbollah's weapons, will be answered by the weapons, even if it is his dad. Hezbollah have a firm belief that Israel are their ennemies and are trying with the US to take over, more like, erase the Middle East. They strongly believe that they should and will react against their own brothers and sisters for the greater goal. I sometimes see where they are coming from, but I am also torn to think and ask myself: "Do I want to be terrorized by a very strong and powerful group". This is their beliefs, as we say in Lebanese "Yesteflo", this is their own war, and they are willing to kill and cause much distress, chaos and death in their own country just so they can achieve their own goal, which I don't necessarily believe is righteous myself. But if all your life you have been raised to think something, do you think anyone can come and change your mind? If anything, it is definitely not by weapons and stuborness.

The government knew better, and this is why for the past 26 years no one dared to criticize Hezbollah, not only the past 2 years or so, and this is when General Aoun signed on the Agreement form with Hezbollah. And FPMers wonder why some people went crazy over this step. Aoun did it because he felt that he was thrown out of the government, and Aoun, believing (maybe he does) of having a large audience in Lebanon who love him, wants to be a President. This is not the history of Lebanon, the history of Lebanon can have thousands of versions and stories and this is not what I intend to do. At this point, I am just trying to roughly see where each faction comes from and how it is IMPOSSIBLE for us Lebanese to ever agree on something.

Lebanese history cannot be written.

Is it wrong to not take Life to seriously spending all the time fighting for something, that most probably is not that important? What is life really, and what is our mission? Shouldn't just we live well and let others live well? Yes, naive thought.

I personally do not want to spend my life worried about people I know and love, thinking at any moment, they can be near an explosion, near a clash, and so on. Is this what Lebanon is? Will it ever be a normal country? This small country has so many differences, and what confuses me the most, is that politics aside, the majority wants to just lead a normal life in Lebanon. We all praise Lebanon, and how beautiful it is, a heaven on earth, sea near the mountains, partying and clubbing, activities, fun, music, great food.

Is it really? Most of the time it is, but the couple of months per year, in which we are blessed to have, a war with Israel, a war with Shaker el Absi and his crew, and now once again a war between each other! Only brings me back to feel like I am in Hell, and Lebanon is nothing but Hell on Earth.

There is no way, we will ever agree on something, if we do, it's only temporary.

Hariri threw back the ball to Hezbollah`s court

In summary, the speech that Hariri gave tonight at 8:10 pm, in response to Nasrallah's press conference this afternoon, concluded in 4 main points which Hariri believes if Nasrallah complies by them, then he does mean well.
1- Within the army regime, there will be ones assigned to investigate the Chief Shoukair issue
2- Reopen the road to the airport and free Beirut from its siege
3- Elect General Michel Sleiman as President
4- Sit together and try to talk things thru led by the newly elected president.

Hariri also highly insisted that he does not want a war and turmoil erupting between sunnist and chiite, and their sole enemy is Israel, and that the airport will not become a base for CIA, FBI and Mossad, and the issue with the communication was not a problem if it is about 3, 4 or 5000 lines, but when it reached 99000 and 999000 then it is a threatening issue for the government and they need to maintain national security.

Now, this kinds of seems like the government is willing to give and take, they did not exactly answer Nasrallah's two demands to make things better, but I believe this is how negotiations go.

Let's cross our fingers.

Nasrallah threw the ball in the government`s court

Or at least, this is how he made it appear. No one denies the power of convincing this man has, but there were a lot of flaws in his press conference. I will get into them later.

But in a summary, he spoke about 3 main points:
1- The private communications central
2- The airport and Chief Wafik Shoukair
3- The crisis

The major points were the following:
1- Sheik Nasrallah explained that a major part of a resistance or army's weapons are the communications, and they need a safe one as unwired and mobile phones are breached and will allow Israel to know their tactics.
2- He called this government to be Walid Jumblat's government, whom is an employee working for Condoleeza Rice
3- The airport step, is to prevent from any clashes in the future with the army and national security, because Hezbollah has no desire in clashing with the army, showing much respect to them
4- Nasrallah threatened anyone who approaches their weapons, will get his hand cut off. Even though he promised before that Hezbollah's weapons won't be used inside Lebanon, he said when the government crossed the line and declared war by taking the decision that Hezbolla's communications are illegal and a national threat
5- Narallah said that they have no interest in taking over the country, the government or any political stand.
6- The don't want Chief Wafik Shoukair to be removed, because they don't want the airport to become an FBI, CIA and Mossad base, which is near their homes.
7- Nasrallah told others to stop using the "Civil war erupting between sunnist and chiite" anymore, as it will not happen!
8- He finally said that there are two things the government can do that will solve the recent issues in Lebanon, which is taking back the decisions in confiscating Hezbolla's communication (which is a big part of their weapons), and answering Berri's call for dialog.

There has been heard some gun shooting as a joyful response to Nasrallah's press conference once it finished, which later led to armed clashes in the streets of Beirut, in principal in Kornishe Al Mazraa, Ras Al Nabaa, Aisha Bakkar, Karakol el Druze.



It has moved from just burning tires, throwing rocks, blocking roads and occasional gun fire in the air, it is now officially a battle between members from Hezbollah and members from the Future Movement, using AK47, RPGs, B7 and Bombs...

Some minutes pass by when it is relatively calm, and only after a couple of minutes to reintiate the gunfire between the two groups. Some persons are wearing masks, and hiding behind buildings, and stealing a moment every minute to shoot at the others, and at buildings. Smoke can be seen from as far as Mount Lebanon.

The party has just begun, Saad Hariri will have another press conference tonight, and now that the ball is in the government's court, I do not see any atom of hope that they will calm things down, as a matter of fact, there is a high probablity that they will only escalate things. Which will translate into the streets as more shootings, bombs and rockets.

The army at this point is not getting involved, I believe they cannot do anything right now, due to the fact that the leaders of both parties did not try to halt anything. The army gave a statement that things cannot be solved by guns, but only by dialog.

Armed clashes for now are between Sunni members and Shiite members, no christian existence yet. If by any shroud of bad luck, christians do get involve, there is a risk that the clashes will reach christian regions, which then officially declares a civil war in Lebanon.

We hope, by a miracle from God, that everything stops today.

For a minute to minute update, check Tayyar.org.
For Sheik Nasrallah's today's press conference in English, check this article on NowLebanon.com

Update: There is a fire in one of the residential areas, and they're shooting at the fire department so they do not put the fire down!

This is bad, very very bad

I've been meaning to sum up what happened starting yesterday and uptill now, but I just can't seem to focus. I can sincerly say, I am scared.

Now that its is being screamed from the top of the roofs that yesterday was a well orchestrated subordination. While the Labors Syndicate Union decided to halt their demonstration and postpone it to another time, the opposition continued their subordination!
The union said that the government was not ready to protect them. What the Union failed to mention was that the ones who closed their roads was the opposition. I believe, the army did a fine job considering the danegrous individuals they were dealing with.

The union, could've done a normal demonstration taking place in one sole location, holding some whiteboards with few slogans on them. But no, they decided to paralyze and open up the opportunity for others to paralyze the capital. Slogans and peaceful gathering were few yesterday. Yes, there were few innocent people really asking and demonstrating against the government for a better living.

After that, the opposition continued to close roads, and the infamously airport road. Many flights were cancelled, no flights departed from Lebanon except empty airplanes. The people who arrived yesterday waited and sat on the ground, some who insisted on leaving the airport had to cross on foot a couple of meters with the help of the army.

Ladies and Gentlemen, we the Lebanese, are being dissected and torn apart by two major evil forces, the Haririst and the Hezbollah!

The coming days will unveil the upcoming war, not necessarily a typical civil war which we are used to, but when RPGs, Snipers and bombs are used in a supposedly "peaceful" demonstration, then it is an ugly battle taking place to say the least.

Uuntil now, some of the Future movement members have closed the road in Saadneyil and also in Masnaa, which is the crossing border between Lebanon and Syria in response to the closing of the road to the airport by Hezbollah. The first, claimed that once the airport road is open, they will open the roads on their ends.

What is funny, is how Tayyar.org refers to Future movement members as "Militia" (which maybe they are), but fails to calls the Hezbollah ones (who are doing exactly the same thing, even though they started it, but it's irrelevant at this moment) militias as well.

Congratulations to propaganda, stupidity and cowardness of the Lebanese people.

Israel closed down our aiport in July 2006, and now Hezbollah closes down the same airport in May 2008.

P.S. When Hezbollah was accused of using spy cameras on the road to the airport, they said if anyone removes those cameras are spies for Israel! Seriously?
Moreover, I don't want to be terrorized into doing or believing something, and at this point Hezbollah is terrorizing the government and the people into succumbing into their own demands.

Kudos for all the political parties for ruining Lebanon just when I thought it couldn't get worse.

Peaceful demonstration or politicized one!

I stand corrected of what I said in yesterday's post, today's demonstration has been completely "politicized", meaning we can obviously see the political sides in it. Opposition on the streets and government on the other side indifferent. It is no longer about underpaid workers!

Gaz, fuel, oil prices have increased today.

Increasing the salaries alone, is not the solution, many things should be taken into consideration. This needs a serious study and not just a simple adjustment. Yes, we should go on the streets and ask for things to be solved and improved, but is this a peaceful demonstration?



It has been said by AL Manar that some Future movement members threw a bomb, rocks, and went up on the roofs to observe and possibly shoot by snipers on the demonstrators! And they even clashed with the army. If this is true (I don't think Al Manar is reliable or objective), then we definitely need our leaders to "control" their followers.



Moreover, Tayyar.org has mentioned that ALL schools, shops and institutions in North Metn have closed. Which is not completely true, they did not close, however parents were worried of what might happen today, so not all parents sent their children to schools, and some (mostly official government workers) tried to reach work, but did not arrive due to some closed roads.
As for shops, many have opened, at least near where I live (which is in North Metn, close to east suburb of Beirut)

(Photos are taken from Tayyar.org)

Lebanon, good or bad change?

Yesterday while I was driving to work, I had my car's sun roof open, and there was a pickup in front of me throwing diesel from its exhaust, I couldn't breathe anymore! And this made me realize that it has been a couple of weeks since breathing for me has been hard and not quite joyable anymore! We are not breathing oxygen alone, I am not sure what kind of mutant we might become due to this so much pollution in the air, but I know it's bad. We need a solution badly!



There has been some more installation of traffic lights along Jdeideh to Dekwaneh Highway, and amazingly people are respecting it. Maybe not 100%, but a good 85% or so. I love this, us, the Lebanese people, the unorganized chaotic rebellious people, are respecting those lights, and why? Because if we don't, while everybody else is, we die... Or if we don't die, we get a ticket.



This is the end of April, May is usually a great month in Lebanon, the best weather, because it's not too hot or humid, and it's not cold, it's perfect. But what happens to the Tourism in Lebanon? Are tourists going to come to Lebanon this year? I've heard that many countries have warned their citizens from coming to Lebanon, this was a couple of months ago, I am not sure if this is the case. The reason why they are spreading this warning, is because they fear of another war in Lebanon.

War in Lebanon? No way Hosey! 12 days ago, it was April 13, the commemoration of the civil war that erupted in 1975. A war that no body wants, but everybody fears.
But the real war that scares most of the Lebanese, is July 2006's daughter. Will she give birth this summer? I surely hope not. It is definitely the case that Israel has been on their toes lately, especially since Mughnieh was assassinated last winter. However, will they attack? Will Hezbollah do another operation that would tick the Israelis off and bring them to war? I guess not, there is this thing we call surprise, and if they do attack, it won't be a surprise, and one of the best elements of war (not that I encourage it), but in the Art of war, when you want to win something, you ought to surprise your enemy and give it to them when they least expect it.

Alas with the presidential elections, nothing yet. And I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing, but we hardly notice this emptiness. The real deal is that our life-long complexe insecure leaders finally agree on something, because this is very pathetic. Yes we know, it's not just about Lebanon, but it's also a regional thing, but enough is enough, I sometimes feel while Lebanon was on the top in the middle east, the Switzerland of the east, the paris of the arabs, all those things that are happening to it, only blooms and improves other countries such as UAE, Qatar or Jordan. While we dig deep and sink, they rise and fly. Who's fault is this?

Regional Updates, negative vibes

With the most recent assault by Isarel on Palestine, and more than a hundred killed with barely 1 week, we can only think of how much human rights are being violated by Israel. Countries such as India, Iran and China are condemning the use of force excercised by Israel on Ghaza and are demanding them to stop it. (Click here to sign a petition for a ceasefire) [1]

The Palestine Human Rights Campaign abhors the escalation of attacks and ground incursions Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF) against Gaza in recent days. Today the attacks killed 31 Palestinians; including 8 children. Among the civilian casualties are thirteen who were killed INSIDE their homes. In the past five days IOF killed over 100 people have been and approximately 150 injured. At least a third are children according to medical sources and most of the casualties are civilians.

Meanwhile, US warships, a guided missile destroyer and USS Cole have resided on the Lebanese cost last Thursday 28 February. US claims that it is there because they are worried about the situation in Lebanon. Other explanations by other sides declare that they are here because of Syria and Iran. [2]

The United States has ordered a warship to take up position off the coast of Lebanon in a show of support for the country's embattled government.
The deployment of the USS Cole is being seen as a warning to Syria which - along with Iran - backs the opposition.

Lebanon remains without a president. The presidential elections has been postponed 15 times so far, and is due to take place on March 11.[2]

Lebanon has not had a president since 24 November, when pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud left office. Parliament has repeatedly failed to elect a successor amid an ongoing row over candidates.

After Nasrallah`s speech, where does this leave us?

On 14 February 2008, it was not only another commemoration of Rafic Hariri's assassination 3 years ago, when tens of thousands of people gather in Central Beirut District, Martyr's square to pay tribute and respect to this man, and of course to show once again that they are against the Syrian regime, and most importantly show a big number to the opposition.


On the other hand, that day also was dedicated to the burial and funeral of Imad Moughnieh, an important member of the Hezbollah organization. "Mugniyah has been implicated in the 1983 bombings of the U.S. Embassy, and U.S. Marine and French peacekeeping barracks, which killed over 350, as well as the 1992 bombings of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires" [1]. He was assassinated only 2 days before (12 February 2008) in Damascus, in a car-bomb explosion.

Sheik Hassan Nasrallah offered his condolences, but also Hezbollah's preparation for retaliation and revenge for losing Moughnieh, sending a clear and assertive message to Israel, that this time there will not be just one Moughnieh, but hundreds. By "this time" he meant, the next war. He told Israel that if they wanted another war, then let it be.
He also criticized 14 March's speeches in Hariri's commemoration that same day, angrily declaring that they should stop with the low and disrespectful way of talking.

One of the many similar responses that came yesterday to Nasrallah's speech was Samir Geagea's, in which he acclaimed that Nasrallah does not have the right to include all of Lebanon in his war on Israel, such an action can only be decided by the government itself.

Moughnieh is regarded as a master terrorist in the whole world. The US and Israel welcomed his assassination, also leaving Israel on high-alert. Iran and Syria condemned it. Lebanon, on the other hand is divided in two opinions:
1 - The first cannot really say that they welcome it (because that would be a very very bad move), nevertheless imply that they do not agree at all with Hezbollah's actions (dragging them into an unwanted war)
2 - And the second clan are deeply saddened for Moughnieh's loss, considering him as a hero, moreover angered and ready for war and revenge.

Where does this leave Lebanon? Presidentless, open for war, and open for more assassinations and explosions, drowning in debt, high prices in almost everything. This is where Lebanon is.

IN HELL.

Real Estate, Rise up! Disaster on its way

In addition to the events that have been happening in Lebanon recently, the shootings, the riots, the electricity issue, the no president, etc... Average Lebanese couple also worry about their future. That is one problem (the future in Lebanon has the form of a problem) that many have faced, are now facing and will continue to face whereas the country's situation is not getting better.

One of the major set backs and obstacles couples, who are on the doors of marriage, confront is buying a house. Real estate has gone madly expensive in Lebanon that people are rushing faster and faster into finding a house and buying it before it gets even more expensive.

"Worldwide energy prices are being driven up as China's industrialization hits full speed." The steel demands of China, in the past two years, have grown very fast, making China become the net importer of steel, causing the raw materials to become rare thus expensive. Consequently, and on a local basis, new buildings are becoming more pricy. But this is not the whole story, even buildings that are more than 2 years old, which have not cost as much as building would do now, have also gone up in prices.

Therefore, a normal 3 bedroom apartment, ranging between 140 sqm and 170 sqm, in Beirut Suburbs for example, is now being sold for more than 100k*, while it was 75k* a couple of years ago.
In north metn (North Beirut suburbs and part of mountain Lebanon), the closer to the capital the more expensive evidently, the prices have risen up as well, by an average of 15 to 30k*.

The housing bank and the housing coop, give special loans up to 80k, that should be paid in 10 or 15 years, followed by the same number of years (total of 20 or 30 years), to pay up the interest which differs depending on the bank in question.

A small reminder, that the minimum wage in Lebanon is 200$* still. Dairy consumption: a small example, a medium milk box (powder) costs more than 7$, while it was a little bit more than 4$* a year ago. Fuel costs between 16 and 18$ for 20 liters (depending on the type).

The average household pays electricity, and also what we Lebanese refer to as "moteur", which is a private electricity provider, in addition there is the water, the phone bill, and the cellphone (god forbids we live without a cellphone in Lebanon), and the luxurious stuff, such as the TV cable, and Internet connection, and insurance for ourselves (few do, and only thanks to their workplaces), and the cars.
A movie theater ticket, is 6,7$.
A Burger King meal is 7$.
A drink is 8$.
A beer is 3$.
A normal restaurant, would cost you a 15$, you need a soda to wash it all down.
A 1kg of yellow cheese costs 7$, you can always buy the cheap kind anyway.
Vegetables, cereals, fruits, dairy, etc... now cost more!

I am stating these numbers in order for people abroad be able to make comparison with their own local prices. In order for them to see and imagine how father with a 350$ salary, can actually pay for a house rent (or not, if he's lucky to have owned it), house bills, kids school tuition, food, transportation, and not to forget, health hazards (municipality fees, taxes and such are not even mentioned here).

A couple, a lucky one, makes 1600$ together. Let's say, they both hold degrees, but nothing fancy. How could they buy a 100k house? How many years do they need to save up in order to pay the first payment, be it 10, 20 or 30% (depends on the bak)? Do they need to stop going out for 5 years? Stop living any sort of life? Just sit at home, make a cheese sandwich, and watch a movie on a local TV channel? And that is all to afford buying a house with a loan. What about the next steps? Such as the furniture? The wedding? Bills? Kids? How will they afford to raise children and send them to schools?

Life in Lebanon is getting ridiculously expensive, all prices are rising up, except for our salaries. Minimum wage remains 200$, and there is no talk about any increase at all, except for our taxes (Check Lebanon reform plan).

God Bless Lebanon, and our procrastination. I believe the above is a GOOD reason to demonstrate! or Not? Should we wait to starve to death?

* k = 1000 USD
* $ = USD

2008, rough start, 2007 bad year

It isn't completely surprising that another year in Lebanon starts out very defectively. Needless to try to go back in time and state history, it is utterly perplexing to decide whether the civil war days, the syrian presence days or the post-hariri assassination days are the worst.
It's a rough start with 2008 beginning by an explosion (January 15, 2008) mainly targetting a US embassy convoy taking the American Ambassador from the airport to celebrate his last days in Lebanon, which turned out to be a decoy, nonetheless resulting with 4 casualties and more than 20 wounded in Karantina Bridge, near Dora Highway.

What happened in 2007 really that is so different than 2006 and worth mentioning? Let us try to recap!


The year 2007, and most probably predicted by Michel Hayek, our 21st century Nostradamus, started out violently specifically on January 23 when a general strike by the opposition took place, leading to burning tires, conflicts between opposing parties, closing roads, traffic and pollution!

Two days later on January 25, a riot, a result to a clash between students in Arab University (most probably a quarrel concerning who's right and who's wrong for what happened two days before), erupted between residents of the surrounding area to the University in beirut, calling for reinforcements from the Lebanese Army to calm things down and call for a curfew.


In response to all this, many non sectarian, non political, non religious movements appeared, far from any color and only embracing the black, white or grey, to call upon the Lebanese to stop being sheep and followers and start working for the better of this country, they were against the pathetic bipolarism in Lebanon.

To save you the suspense, almost a year later, I can tell you the end of this movie. They did not succeed.

If you think this movie started out strong, wait for the next unfortunate event, which I naively recollected that it happened in 2006, but no, it was on 13 February the explosion and sad death of 3 and a number of casualties in Ain Alak.

The reason behind my weak memory is far from it being weak than for the fact that too much is occuring in this damned country that we think it is taking placing during a long period of time.

14 February, once a Valentine's day a celebration of Love, now...


A short while later, a war of Billboards splashed across the nation with the famous "I Heart Life", then "I heart Life with dignity", etc.. etc.. leading to many shops and companies taking advantage of it for their own good.

Despite it all, Lebanese still have their humour.

Throughout the year we hear politicians and political leaders (most of whom were once warlords) give speeches, in general they are all bad at it except one, whom I don't support or agree with most of the time, however acknowledge his articulate way of giving a speech, Hizbollah general secretary, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah.

Nevertheless, what is beautiful about Lebanon, remains beautiful, and this is why:


Lebanon at one point had two presidents representing it in the Arab Summit.


May 20 to May 27 in 2007 was undoubtedly one of the worst weeks of the year when clashes between the Lebanese Army and Fatah Al Islam started in the Palestinian Nahr el Bared camp in North Lebanon, leading the the infamous war with Fatah Al Islam, resulting with many martyrs and casualties from the Lebanese Army.
Also on Sunday May 20, an explosion killed a woman in Ashrafieh (Beirut).
Monday May 21 recorded an Explosion in Verdun (Beirut).
Wednesday Mar 23, an explosion in Alay (Mount Lebanon).

Meanwhile, Draft resolution 1757 was adopted by the Security Council, declaring a decision in forming an international tribunal under the 7th chapter in order to investigate the assassination of Prime Minister Rafic Hariri.

A while later, and as the Lebanese always cope with the horrible situations that Lebanon goes through with jokes, a long line of jokes started spreading and what better than in a Facebook group.

Another Explosion in Sid El Bouchrieh on June 4 (Eastern Beirut Suburb).
And another in Zouk Mosbeh (Mount Lebanon), three days later.

Due to all the saddening and agonizing events that occured, School year ended early.

The 7th explosion in 2007 took place on June 13 in Al-Manara (Beirut) and this time it was a direct hit and unfortunately a successful attempt of assassination of MP Walid Eido.

As a consequence to the series of unfortunate occurences, festivities in Lebanon were cancelled.

On June 25, UNIFIL troops have taken their share of the explosion where a car bomb killed 6.

As a replacement to the late MP Sheikh Pierre Gemayel, there was elections in Mount Lebanon, where Former President Amine Gemayel ran against Kamil Khoury from the opposition's FPM. The outcome of this elections although at one point both were winners, turned out in favor for Kamil Khoury.


September 2007, started out a bit more positif than the previous months where the Naher AL Bared's war ended, with the Lebanese Army rising victorious.

Yet, it did not continue well when on September 19 a bomb in Horsh Tabet exploded killing MP Antoine Ghanem and 6 other casualties, including the young Charles Chikhani.


As not to leave things metaphorical such as Lebanon being on fire, a fire did happen across most of the forests of mountains in the country.

Jealous for not breaking a record, Lebanon broke its own record, reaching the highest number yet of car accidents. 830 casualties and more than 10000 wounded.

While preparing for the presidential elections, which (to also save you the suspense) have been delayed 12 times by this date, people were not coping so well, delaying big purchases and trying to put some money on the side, especially that everything was getting more expensive.


Emile Lahoud leaves Baabda, becoming a former president, assigning no one behind him, making Lebanon presidentless during the holidays.

At the final days of the year and on the same day Gibran Tueni died 2 years ago, there was an explosion in Baabda (South Metn) on 12/12/2007 killing the Head of Operations in the Lebanese Army Francois AL Hajj with 4 others, making it the 10th explosion this year.

2007
830 car accidents casualties
100+ casualties and injured from explosions
10 Explosions
3 Assassinations
1 Draft Resolution
1 war
0 President

The End.

Constitutional or not Constitutional, this is the question

Not because it's a historical day, but it's because it is one of the most contradictory days that Lebanon has ever witnessed.
1- 109 Parliament members including opposition arrive to the parliament at noon.
2- Session postponed till November 30th in order to elect a president agreed upon from all sides
3- Post the canceled session, deputies talk back to each other through the media
4- The Cabinet is in session since 6:30pm discussing the latest updates
5- The president (till 11:59pm on November 23, 2007) Emile Lahoud declares a state of emergency starting 24 November 2007
6- The Cabinet denies it, based on the constitution, explaining that only the cabinet after passing it to the parliament as well and the majority's signature can declare such state. (That was at 8:30 pm today)

Stay tuned for any updated, today is not finished yet.

Today and yesterday, a year ago

21 November 2006, Sheik Pierre Amine Gemayel was assassinated, after making an appearance in a funeral in Mar Mtanous Church in Jdeideh. He was shot, along with his bodyguards, by unmasked criminals. Last year I posted this, when I first heard of the assassination, and this a while later after the shock has faded. The assassination happened one day before Lebanon's independence day. On Independence day in 2006, things were not the same sort of speak.

I turned on the TV today and searched in all local channels for the tanks and army showcasing, and it was not there. Most probably, the reason behind this, is the messy unsuccessful presidential elections. Anyway, even if last year I critisized this showcasing and suggested they run the previous year's show, I still missed it. It's our tradition, it at least projected a minimum level of the situation status of the country. Now it's not even there.

Our Independence day is a sad pathetic day.

How are the presidential elections affecting the average Lebanese citizen?

Many people are delaying big purchases such as apartments or cars till after the elections. Others are postponing payments of monthly bills or installments till the end of the month. One case I've heard is postponing a wedding and buying furniture for their house. I personally postponed buying a ticket to a concert till next week. And of course, many have canceled going out this week, many rumors of staying home is safer, embassies sending message to their people to avoid going out all this week. Moreover many Lebanese are worried of a potential rage riot, roads blocking, area occupation and such. Every side is accusing the other of going to start a fight. A company is also waiting for all this to finish before they move to a new location. Thursday is a holiday, independence day, so many schools are going to close on Wednesday and Friday as well.

But in general, it isn't as worrisome as it sounds, we are more than used to this, for example all work places are not affected by this. (lucky us)

Could Saniora have done things better?

The vibes that Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Saniora has sent were caused by statements he gave such as: "The important thing now is to restore full Lebanese sovereignty in the south, dismantling any armed militia parallel to the national army."

Also Saniora said that Hizbullah has created a "state within a state" in Lebanon and must be disarmed in an interview in an Italian Daily magazine.

Moreover he said that Chebaa Farms are to claim from Israel, and Lebanon needs international help to convince Israel to withdraw from these farms, that were being used by Hezbollah as a pretext to attack Israeli forces.

"The international community must help us in (getting) an Israeli withdrawal from Chebaa Farms so we can solve the problem of Hezbollah's arms," Saniora said. Source: JP.

In Haaretz, Saniora was described as a man who runs his government on three tracks: "He deals with Hezbollah through Beri, with the Lebanese public through Information Minister Ghazi Aridi, and with the world through Hariri's son, Saad Hariri, who spent the last week in France."

Saniora was referred to as a man who is highly skilled in negotations, and this "compliment" has been given to him due to the decision of sending the Lebanese troops to the South of Lebanon, which could have resulted from Saad Hariri, or both together. Therefore deciding to run this option by France and see their reaction. This option was suggested after revising the proposal coming from France and the US concerning the cease-fire, and knowning that the Lebanese President of the Parliament and Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah will not agree to it.

Which finally lead to the resolution 1701 that has been decided on, and then voted in favor of on Friday, August 11, at 7 pm New York time. This resolution that most of the world leaders welcomed, American, French, Israeli, Arab, almost all but Nasrallah; nonetheless he did abide by it, although refrained from commenting on several points, and with which to deal after the cease-fire happens, with the various Lebanese power figures.

The question is, could Saniora have done things better? Or is this exactly how he wanted them!

The war in Lebanon has just began

As Israel conducted more battles and combats in the south of Lebanon just hours after the UN Security Council adopted a cease-fire plan under the 1701 resolution. Israeli troops surged into Southern Lebanon on Saturday August 12th, and reached the Litani river.

Saturday, August 12th, has the highest death tolls for the day, where 19 soldiers have died in heavy combats with Hezbollah militants, 5 were missing and 70 injured.

Counting the hours till Monday the 14th, 8 a.m. Beirut time, both leaders in Israel and Lebanon have agreed on the time for a cease-fire. But until then, a new war has begun as Israel needs to do what they wanted to do when they got into Lebanon in the first place, in the first war.

Hezbollah's militants have shot down a military transport helicopter in South Lebanon that contained 5 people aboard, that are all missing.

Israel said that their IDF have killed 40 Hezbollah militants, however Hezbollah only stated the death of 3.

U.N. Deal Moves Forward, But Strikes Continue
As Lebanon and Hezbollah militants move forward with a U.N. peace deal, the nation's deadly conflict continues, claiming more civilian lives. (Aug. 12)
Click to watch video, source: Associated Press.

"We must not make a mistake, not in the resistance, the government or the people, and believe that the war has ended. The war has not ended," Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah declared.

Before the sun comes up on Sunday dawn, Israeli warplanes have reached Syrian borders and struck a bridge near the town of Halba, and a target that remains unidentified around Ali Nahri in East Bekaa Valley. Sources Lebanese Media.

Finally, the cease-fire is not adopted yet, and those 2 days and a half will probably seem to be the longest on the Lebanese as Israel has decided to begin a new war on August 12 to finish the business that the first war was supposed to on July 12.

Israel's unfinished ''business'' in Lebanon

What's happening today in the south of Lebanon is too much like what happened in 1973 war. After 16 days of conflict, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution with the number of 338, which calls for a cease-fire. (Contrary to the 1701 resolution, it defined a starting date, on the 22nd of October). Both conflicting countries accepted the resolution, still the fighting continued.

By the time the 1701 resolution is waiting for the acceptance of the two governments of Lebanon and Israel to take effect. (And it looks like they both are going to approve it). Israel has an "unfinished job" in the south of Lebanon. Hezbollah, for the past thirty-two days maintained a routine in shelling the same amount of rockets on north of Israel, and on a daily basis.

Many experts and strategy analysts reported lately in the medias that Hezbollah had not been defeated yet. In a recent report by Stratfor team cited that: "Hezbollah has certainly achieved an extraordinary degree of success. It has fought IDF to a draw". Adding also that: "Hezbollah's strategy has worked thus far, establishing it as the most effective force ever to confront the Israelis."

It is notable to say unlike all other wars Israel has fought against Arabs, this was the longest, and probably the first to be won by diplomatic and political efforts; IDF could not profit from a strategic military surprise to have a decisive influence on the subsequent course of the war. In the 1956 war it surprised the Egyptian army by choosing the Zero hour. Again in the 1967 war in an extraordinary and well coordinated surprise smashed the Egyptian air force and returned to refuel, leaving behind more than 17 completely destroyed airfields, and around 300 aircrafts. Just a day before President Abed-el-Nasser was receiving envoys from the United States convincing him that there will be no war if he does not make the first move. In 1973 war, the Egyptian turned the table, even through President Al-Sadat has been repeating that the status Quo and the situation of "No War, No Peace" is not acceptable and must be changed by force. The Israeli military intelligence knew about doubtful movements on the Egyptian side and did not take them seriously. This time Surprise was fighting with the Egyptians against the Israelis. After one week of intense fighting, Israel had to call for help from its patron the United States. The supplies and aids did not take much time; the aerial bridge soon was replacing all the damaged military equipments. Israel shifted to plan B, it had to gain a striking military advantage to give it a comfortable place on the negotiating table. The Plan B, lead by Ariel Sharon, secured a twenty kilometer wide corridor to the canal with the purpose to surround the Egyptian third army and cut off its supplies. When Al-Sadat figured it out, it was too late, and this operation achieved after the UNSCR 338 has been adopted, affected directly the rest of the war, and thus the winning side.

"The “cease-fire in-place” portion of UNSCR 338 was criticized by Israeli officials who complained it would not allow them to “finish the job” in the Sinai. Kissinger responded by asking how long it would take to complete encirclement of the Egyptian army. Upon hearing “two or three days,” Kissinger is reported to have responded: “Well, in Vietnam the cease-fire didn’t go into effect at the exact time that was agreed on."

Similar to what happened in the 1973 war, Israel needs more time, probably few more days, till 14th of August. It is trying to deploy a noteworthy number of troopers (30,000 leaked to the newspapers) in the south of Lebanon, trying to invade as much as it can, and bear for few days the resistance of Hezbollah. Monday will come; Israel had fulfilled its public opinion and showed the world and the Arabs its invincibility and that Hezbollah could not prevent the IDF from occupying Lebanon's Land.

Pascal Assaf
August, 12th 2006

Is Resolution 1701 a diversion till the next war in Lebanon

UN Security Council just called for "and end to the bloodshed" between Israel and Hezbollah, and for the deployment of 15000 international peacekeeping troops to prevent further conflict.

Is this resolution just a diversion? a way to convince people that it is the first step for ceasefire? Well probably it is, probably by the time the 15000 international troops are ready to come, or come for that matter, and join the Lebanese Army, to all go together and get deployed on the borders, "South Litani River", to "prevent" from further conflict.

IDF will only leave Lebanon when the international / Lebanese troops are deployed. Although, Israel has been asked to retreat. Therefore and until then as Israel has precisely said: "they will NOT halt their attacks and air-strikes on Lebanon, not YET".

The council called for "a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hezbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations."
Source: Yahoo! News

So basically, the above means that Hezbollah must stop all attacks and Israel would stop all "offensive" attacks but not "defensive" ones?

Moreover, the resolution states to return the 2 Israeli kidnapped soldiers by Hezbollah.

What about Shebaa Farms? What about the Lebanese prisoners in Israel?

Finally, if the resolution 1701 doesn't change to a better one, one that makes sense and does really help Lebanon, because this one seems to be in favor to Israel much more than to Lebanon. Then I guess Lebanon will still face the same problem, if not maybe a worse one.

Why? Because they did not do anything that will really give Hezbollah a reason to disarm. And who will be responsible to disarm them? The international troops and the Lebanese army?

Perhaps they liked the blogs about the war on Lebanon so much, that they want us to keep going.

Is Thursday, August 10, the first step for cease-fire?

The United States expressed criticism of the latest escalation of IDF, their expansion of the ground operations in Lebanon. This is probably the strongest criticism that the United States has showed towards Tel Aviv since the beginning of July War 2006.

Moreover, Israel has just declared the suspension of their expansion of ground operations on Lebanon in order to give a chance to the diplomatic efforts. This came right after the news that the leader of the Galile troop in the Israeli Troops has been injured, so was Golani's (source: aljazeera.net) during the ground operations.

The move can either be interpreted as it is, that Israel really wants to give Diplomacy a chance, or it is playing a trick to win some more time in order to exercise another plan, by picking theirselves up and re-grouping as two of their leaders have been injured and 15 soldiers today have died due to the ground confrontations with Hezbollah militants. Also, a thrid explanation, Olmert will not be able to confront the pressure in the coming hours caused by the injuries of two important militants in the IDF.

Can Israel afford this much loss? What is the next move? End of war, or just a recess.

So what's next?

More than two weeks passed, Israel's air strike is still engaged harshly in destroying Hezbollah's posts and headquarters, de facto Lebanon's Infrastructure. North of Israel is still facing hundred's of rockets every day. The number of missiles lunched daily didn't decrease over time; it just went further, deeper and increased its range inside the Israel's territories. (July 28, five rockets struck Afula in northern Israel which has been the farthest point Hezbollah rockets has reached since the beginning of July 2006 war). The present situation is just the same as the first day when this war started as long as we don't have a winner either by knock out or by points. Backwards, specifically 17 days ago, to the 12th of July when Hezbollah's guerillas succeeded to capture two Israeli soldiers (Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev) after a remarkable brilliant raid in a cross borders attack, which left the battleground with eight dead soldiers and another twenty-two wounded.
In a trustful and confidential appearance of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah a 46 years old, the chief of Hezbollah resistance group, on television the same night addressed the nation, the western countries, and the government of Israel with one clear message: "What we did today ... is the only feasible path to free detainees from Israeli jails.", Called the operation the "Loyal Promise" and proposed an "indirect negotiations and an exchange of prisoners" and end this crisis without confrontation. It was obvious that Hezbollah's chief predicted or at least hoped the Israelis' response will be miniature and limited to a few incursions.
On the other side of the chessboard Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert accepted the challenge and was thinking of more than one move ahead in a game Israel did not choose its timing but definitely was enthusiastic and longing for sometime to play it. Sometime that goes back to May 2000 when the Israeli troops unilaterally withdrew from self-proclaimed 'security zone' in south of Lebanon, leaving behind Hezbollah as a strong and yet growing key player in the politics of Lebanon especially in its defense strategy and war declaration solely decision maker. At his press conference early that day Olmert vowed that "Israel will respond and that it will respond in an unequivocal fashion that will cause those who started this act of war to bear a very painful and far-reaching responsibility for their actions". Later answering a reporter he supplemented: "I want to make it clear: This morning's events were not a terrorist attack but the action of a sovereign state that attacked Israel for no reason and without provocation. The Lebanese government, of which Hezbollah is a member, is trying to undermine regional stability. Lebanon is responsible and Lebanon will bear the consequences of its actions."
The reply of the Lebanese government, which is the third participant in this conflict is in no doubt a "Silent Partner", didn't take much time to be revealed, Prime Minister Fouad Seniora after an emergency cabinet meeting said: "The government was not aware of and does not take responsibility for, nor endorses what happened on the international borders."
Later on Nasrallah in a taped message broadcasted 14th of July, shortly after his Beirut offices were bombed pledged an open war with Israel, "You wanted an open war and we are ready for an open war.", and vowed to strike even deeper into Israel with rockets. In another statement dated few years ago, On April 24, 2003, he cited that: "Since May 2000, the resistance has been preparing for war, because Israel wants to avenge its defeat in Lebanon".
So both disputed parties have been preparing for this since May 2000, now they are vis-à-vis, what's next? But before any attempts to predict or figure out, the initial question should be, what were the strategic objectives and aims of those preparations for both sides?
From Israel point of view, the most instantaneous goal is to stop the current rocket attacks, and to do it with the least number of casualties. In addition to some other multiple targets ranging from: "The need to put Hezbollah out of business", as Brigadier-General Ido Nehushtan told the Associated Press, to Disarming Hezbollah and implementing in a way or another the UN's 1559 act, with the help of major world key players starting with UN itself, the United States, the Arab world leaders (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan..), the European Union and the Russian federation, and teaching the Lebanese government a painful lesson never to be forgotten, and finally to creating a buffer zone in the south of Lebanon; not to forget also the return of its two captives.
As for Hezbollah, the main purpose is to resist and survive and mostly maintain the shelling routine of the missiles on the north of Israel. Also in addition of other secondary objectives, as to pull Israel into a ground confrontation and face counterinsurgency operations in which Hezbollah showed itself to be an innovative and determined ferocious enemy, Overcome in a defensive battle the performance of all Arab armies that fought against Israel and break the quote about its "Invincibility".
If there will be a cease-fire in the present conditions, Hezbollah in no doubt the winner by points, politically and military wise, In Lebanon and the outer world. Israel hasn't completed any of its tasks, it is the LOSER.
But this is not the final result; neither Israel will accept the score, nor the United States. For the first time since 1948 Israel will lose a war, not versus Arab countries united and not against "nuclear" Iran, it will lose against a "Terrorism militant group" (as the American dictionary defines it) which resides in the weakest country in the Arab world, Lebanon, the country on its borders.
Again, the question: "What’s next?" pops up again, so either the IAF (Israeli Air Force) has failed in its mission because it has been misled by the military intelligence about Hezbollah's infrastructure, or the objectives of the air-strikes are something that is not expected anymore. Israel has lost its tactical surprise when it deployed its troops on the borders. And lately most of the Israeli statements and analysis spread in the Media were convinced a mobile ground operation is just a distant option not to be chosen.
Will Israel play its last card and go for an offensive urban operation inside Lebanon, probably approaching to the Litani River? Will it be able to generate a new situation that shifts the balance of powers, thus gives it a comfortable seat on the negotiation table?
The upcoming days might be the most ruthless and brutal nightmare since the beginning of this war. The new question will be: the nightmare of which opponent?

Pascal Assaf
29 July 2006

It’s a loss-loss scenario

Here we are on the 25th of July, the 13th day of aggression against Lebanon. The clock is reset on every midnight but the number of civilians killed is still rocketing, leaving the already moaning country in a deep bloodshed that would affect the whole society for months and maybe years to come. It’s conspicuous that the whole world endorsed a punishment for Hezbollah (with the exception of Iran and Syria for sure) in a way or another. What they are betting on is that Hezbollah will go for some compromises after some Israeli incursions inside the Lebanese territory, at least to accept a buffer zone in the South that couldn’t halt the attacks on Northern Israel theoretically, but could practically. Why am I saying that? The deployment of a special force in the South can’t be used as a shield for future attacks on Israel on both military and legal point of view. Such deployment will follow a mutual treaty forcing both sides not to use military means using any territorial or aerial space of the buffer zone. By that, both sides will declare, at least not a short-lived cease-fire under the UN and the International Community supervision. Until such agreement, the bloodshed and destruction will continue unfortunately for further “clean-up” of Hezbollah fortified posts in the Southern region of Litany. This should come at a cost for the IDF (ironically, it calls itself “defense” forces but most of its campaigns have been offensive) that makes the Hezbollah leadership more comfortable in its defense strategy by increasing the casualties in the Israeli side in a hope for fewer compromises. It is time for the Lebanese government officials to scratch their heads for a feasible solution with adequate procedures that satisfies the International Community as well as Hezbollah. Time is running out, we are losing civilians, time and money.

The civilian casualties have been frightening. As for material losses, the costs are compounding with every minute and every raid. Some people say that Israel is hit as well, but the casualties have been much less in a country that can secure tons of free money from abroad , either from its Diaspora or through governmental grants from the US and EU mainly. The Israeli economy is not paralyzed except in the upper north at the time the Lebanese economy is utterly paralyzed with the destruction of some infrastructure, the closure of the seaports and airports which provide the necessary cash flows to the treasury to keep up with its due payments, let alone the siege imposed since the beginning of the war. The private sector is obviously hit as well due either by direct damages by air raids or by shrinking consumer spending or a bit of both. Even if Hezbollah thinks that it has enough rockets to pound Israel for months, the economy doesn’t have enough oil to lubricate its wheels for that long. The opportunity cost has been already high, but any procrastination in a cease-fire process is going to lead to a lethal financial distress. The tax revenues almost dried up, with huge due payments for debt services coming up, along with the wages for the public sector employees.

The opportunity cost encompasses all missed revenues due to the war. This cost should be capped accompanied by a post-war sagacious plan leading to a fully-efficient reconstruction of the infrastructure and t